The USDA estimated the total US hog population as of
September 1st at 76.480 million head, even with last year. This is the
largest September 1st inventory since 2020. The market hog inventory
was projected to be up 1% from a year ago at 70.347 million head. The
weight breakdown was front end loaded. Hogs kept for breeding were
reported at 6.044 million head, down 2% from last year. Sow farrowings
in the June-August quarter were quoted at 2.989 million head, down 2%
on the year, while the pig crop was estimated to decline by 1% to 35.03
million head. USDA went back and revised the December-February pig crop
up by 609,000 head and the March-May pig crop by 102,000 head.
Total pork supplies in cold storage at the end of
August were reported by USDA at 453.6 million pounds, down 3% from a
year ago. Pork bellies in cold storage were at 25.632 million pounds,
down 16.6 million pounds from July and down 11 million pounds from last
year. Beef stocks in the freezer were pegged at 395.2 million pounds,
even with the year prior. Total chicken stocks were at 754.9 million
pounds, a 9% decrease from a year ago.
The International Longshoremen's Association union
representing 45,000 port workers went on strike this past Tuesday,
their first large-scale stoppage in nearly 50 years. The ports affected
are on the East and Gulf Coasts. The ILA union had been negotiating
with the United States Maritime Alliance employer group for a new
six-year contract. Approximately 45% of US pork and 30% of US beef
exports are shipped out of the ports on the East and Gulf coasts.
We're in another drought and it's getting worse. On the
USDA Weekly Crop Progress report for the week ending September 29th,
only 26% of US pastures were rated in good-excellent condition versus
35% last year. Pastures in "poor-very poor" condition were rated at 43%
compared to 35% a year ago. The drought has persisted in the west for
months, but has now spread to states in the eastern Corn Belt and
mid-Atlantic states.
Grains
The EPA found that ADM violated federal safe drinking
water rules and its underground injection permit with a leak at the
first major US underground carbon sequestration facility in Illinois.
The Illinois Industrial Carbon Capture and Sequestration Project is
meant to demonstrate the ability of carbon dioxide to be stored safely
underground. The EPA said a July inspection at the site found that
carbon dioxide injected into the subsurface flowed into "unauthorized
zones" and that the company failed to follow an emergency response and
remediation plan.
A partnership including Bank of America, Delta, Ecolab,
Xcel Energy, and others is building what is believed to be the nation's
first SAF blend facility in Minnesota. Flint Hills Resources in
collaboration with Delta Airlines is in the early stages of developing
a facility to blend up to 30 million gallons of unblended or "neat"
sustainable aviation fuel at its Pine Bend refinery in Rosemount,
Minnesota. Neat SAF is produced using renewable feedstocks to produce
drop-in jet fuel. Current standards allow 50% neat SAF to be blended
with Jet A fuel. Work on the facility is expected to be completed in
the fourth quarter of 2025. Shell is expected to supply the SAF.
Blended jet fuel will be delivered via Flint Hills' existing pipeline
to the Minneapolis-St. Paul International Airport, Delta's
second-largest hub.
The Nationwide Consumer and Fuel Retailer Choice Act
was introduced into the US House of Representatives in late September.
If passed, the legislation would make permanent the year-round
availability of lower-cost, lower-carbon E15 fuel nationwide. The bill
was led by Representatives Smith (Nebraska), Craig (Minnesota), Meeks
(Iowa), Budzinski (Illinois), Johnson (South Dakota), and Davids
(Kansas). The bill is the House companion to Senate bill S.2707
introduced by Senator Fisher of Nebraska.
On the USDA Small Grains Summary issued Monday,
September 30th, total winter wheat production was finalized at 1.349
billion bushels, slightly lower than the August report, but still 107
million bushels larger than 2023. Total Kansas wheat production was
reported at 307.45 million bushels, up 106.2 million bushels from the
previous year. The average 2024 wheat yield in Kansas came in at 43
bushels per acre compared to 35 the year before.